The
calibration
ledger.
A verdict is worthless until someone grades it. This is where we grade ours, in public, on a schedule set before the first company was admitted.
Every verdict, followed to month eighteen, whatever it did in between.
GO, GROW, PARK or KILL, with the registered thresholds that produced it.
Which version of the buyer-access predictor admitted the company.
Durability. Did the customers stay and did the motion hold.
Operating, acquired, raised, wound down, or dormant.
Whether the verdict was right, and if not, in which direction it was wrong.
Published before
the first company
is admitted.
A GO that died is a false positive. A KILL that thrived is a false negative. Reporting only the first makes a strict grader look accurate and an honest one look bad.
Fifty companies can reject a strong effect and cannot establish a subtle one. We report ranges and claim nothing the sample can't carry.
Registered criteria are frozen at day zero. If a threshold was wrong, the next version changes it, and the ledger keeps the old one visible.
The comparison group is self-selected, which biases it. We name the bias rather than correct it away.
Not when the results are flattering. A publication schedule chosen after the data arrives is not a schedule.